The seventh annual Kerrigan Advisors Dealer Survey found that auto dealers by and large expect no change in their business outlook this year, as well as no change to their dealership valuations. In fact, 24% of dealers expect their valuations to increase, a 41% improvement over last year. And only 16% expect a decline in valuations, down 52% from last year. According to Kerrigan, that marks the first improvement in valuation expectations since the pandemic days of 2021 and the first time since then that more dealers expect an increase in valuation rather than a decrease.
The poll by the sell-side firm assesses dealer sentiment on the future value of their businesses, franchise earnings and valuation expectations. The 2025 survey also explored currently pressing issues in the auto retail industry, such as artificial intelligence and tariffs.
Dealers participating in the survey reported having a more optimistic view of profitability this year compared to 2025. Thirty-two percent said they expect a rise in profits, a 129% increase from last year. And only 20% of dealers expect a decline in profitability, down from 43% last year.
Despite the rise of U.S. tariffs in 2025, 43% of dealers reported that tariffs had no impact on their businesses. In fact, in a surprising eight-to-one ratio, 16% of dealers said they are planning to acquire more dealerships, and only 2% said they're planning to sell more dealerships as a result of tariffs.
The rise in AI in auto retail is reflected in the survey data, as 43% of dealers reported they are already using AI in their businesses and 47% plan to do so in the future. Kerrigan Advisors “expects AI to have a meaningful impact on industry results in 2026 and beyond.”
Toyota and Lexus rank at the top once again with the highest valuation increase expectations, the most trust and highest buyer demand.
Overall, domestic franchises increased in valuation expectations while import expectations declined. Kerrigan speculated that that might be a product of the Trump administration’s push for domestic manufacturing.
Kerrigan Advisors is the leading sell-side advisor and thought partner to auto dealers nationwide. Since its founding in 2014, the firm has led the industry with the sale of more than 300 dealerships generating more than $10 billion in client proceeds, including two of the largest transactions in auto retail history – the sale of Jim Koons Automotive Companies to Asbury Automotive Group and Leith Automotive to Holman. The firm advises the industry’s leading dealership groups, enhancing value through the lifecycle of growing, operating and, when the time is right, selling their businesses. Led by a team of veteran industry experts with backgrounds in investment banking, private equity, accounting, finance and real estate, Kerrigan Advisors is the only firm in auto retail exclusively dedicated to sell-side advisory, providing its clients the assurance of a conflict-free approach.
Kerrigan Advisors monitors conditions in the buy/sell market and publishes an in-depth analysis each quarter in The Blue Sky Report®, the industry authority on dealership buy/sell market trends and valuations and includes Kerrigan Advisors’ signature blue sky charts, multiples and analysis for each franchise in the luxury and non-luxury segments. To download a preview of the report, click here. The firm also releases The Kerrigan Index™ comprised of the seven publicly traded auto retail companies with operations focused on the US market. The Kerrigan Auto Retail Index is designed to track dealership valuation trends, while also providing key insights into factors influencing auto retail. To access The Kerrigan Index™, click here. To read the 2024 Kerrigan Dealer Survey, click here. To read the 2025 Kerrigan OEM Survey, click here. Kerrigan Advisors also is the co-author of NADA’s Guide to Buying and Selling a Dealership.
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