Many auto dealers in the year ahead expect their dealerships will generate similar profits and carry a similar valuation as they did in 2025, but a growing number anticipate having a better 2026, according to survey data from Kerrigan Advisors.
However, many dealers also felt stores representing certain brands were poised to decline in value — a bearishness which tends to correlate with the automakers dealers trust the least including Nissan and Chrysler-Dodge-Jeep-Ram, according to the 2025 Kerrigan Dealer Survey.
A Kerrigan Advisors poll of 525 dealers from June to November examined what level of trust they have for each brand — high, moderate or none.
Nearly a quarter of dealers — 24 percent — felt their group or location would be worth more in the next 12 months, up from 17 percent in 2024 and the first increase since 2021. Only 16 percent thought their business would receive a lower valuation in the coming year, far lower than the 33 percent a year earlier.
It was the first time since 2021 that dealers expecting their stores or groups would be worth more outnumbered dealers who predicted a loss, Kerrigan Advisors, a sell-side consulting firm, wrote in a report being released Jan. 5.
The company said it also expected blue sky values — a store’s intangible value, including goodwill — hit a floor in 2024 and would rise in 2026.
“Dealers are now significantly more positive than they were in 2024 about valuation,” Erin Kerrigan, managing director of Kerrigan Advisors, told Automotive News.
Kerrigan said dealers’ valuation optimism drew from the improved dealer outlook on profitability.
“It’s an important inflection point in the industry,” she said.
Kerrigan Advisors asked dealers which franchises they wanted to buy and what they expected for brand valuations in the coming 12 months.
Many retailers viewed the Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Nissan, Infiniti, Volkswagen and Volvo brands unfavorably, with at least half of dealers expecting dealerships selling those vehicles would be worth less in 12 months. In addition, the survey found dealers had low interest in adding any of those compared with many other brands.
“With new leadership at the helm, Volvo Cars introduced an ambitious U.S. plan to retailers in late 2025, which focuses on a profitable, premium and electrified future, anchored by a choice in powertrain and expanded U.S. production,” a Volvo Cars spokesperson said. “We look forward to working together to drive long-term growth, profitability and confidence across the network.”
Kerrigan Advisors wrote that Stellantis had “the biggest improvement of any franchise in valuation projections for 2026.” Fifteen percent of dealers thought Chrysler-Dodge-Jeep-Ram stores would rise in value, up 10 points, and while 50 percent of dealers thought Stellantis locations would be worth less, which was 26 points less than in 2024.
“Stellantis has taken a number of actions over the last year to support and rebuild trust among its dealer network,” Stellantis said in a statement. “This includes revised pricing, streamlined trim levels and multiple powertrain options, providing customers the freedom of choice.”
The automaker said in the statement it was bringing vehicles such as the Ram 1500 Hemi and Jeep Cherokee to dealers and adding jobs including “200 people in sales, service and parts field operations to bolster the customer experience.”
Domestic franchises “saw an improvement in their valuation expectations for 2026″ but luxury and nonluxury import dealerships “saw a decline in their upside valuation expectations for 2026,” Kerrigan Advisors wrote. “These results may be a product of the Trump administration’s economic policies which favor U.S. manufacturers.”
The White House said Dec. 22 that “the Administration’s tax cut and deregulation policies – especially related to cumbersome EV mandates and CAFE standards, which were driving up the cost of new cars – are also primed to substantially benefit auto dealers."
More than 60 percent of dealers declared they had zero trust in Stellantis, Nissan and Infiniti, according to Kerrigan Advisors’ report.
Both Stellantis and Nissan were distrusted by 64 percent of dealers, and 61 percent of dealers said they had no trust in Infiniti. Stellantis cut its “no trust” percentage year-over-year by 8 percentage points, which Kerrigan Advisors called one of the best improvements among automakers.
“Dealers that trust the franchise are going to invest in the franchise,” Kerrigan said. “They’re going to ... feel comfortable putting their dollars into blue sky.”
Nissan Group said in a statement that it values “all feedback from our dealer network and remain committed to strengthening these partnerships.” The automaker said in the statement both brands “are investing in innovative vehicles and services and enhanced dealer support programs designed to build trust and drive long-term profitability.”
Volkswagen saw one of the largest increases in dealers not trusting them, up 11 points to 47 percent.
“Volkswagen values our dealer network and the vital role dealers play in serving customers and driving our business forward,” Brian Nash, executive vice president of sales and marketing for Volkswagen North America, said in a statement. “Strengthening these relationships isn’t just a priority; it’s a commitment. We’re focused on making tangible improvements with the goal of growing our businesses together, working side by side to ensure mutual success.”
Kerrigan Advisors polled more than 500 dealers from June to November about what valuation changes they expected in the next 12 months for various brands’ stores, plus their own dealerships. Here’s how they felt different franchises would perform, with Toyota stores tops for an increase in value.
Toyota well received by dealerships; Chevrolet improves key metrics
Dealers viewed General Motors brands more favorably in 2025, particularly Chevrolet.
Twenty-one percent of dealers expect Chevrolet franchises will increase in value, up from a year earlier.
Nineteen percent of dealers said they had high trust in Chevrolet, one of the largest improvements in the poll. Sixty-five percent of dealers had moderate trust in Chevrolet, and 17 percent don’t trust the brand.
Toyota and Lexus were the winners in the survey, with the largest proportions of dealers forecasting the brands’ stores would rise in value and more than three-quarters of dealers saying they have a high level of trust in the brands. Dealers also showed more interest in adding new Toyota and Lexus locations than they did for many other mainstream and luxury brands.
Kerrigan Advisors said their “measured approach to network size, EV strategy and judicious inventory management remain highly attractive to buyers.”
Kerrigan Advisors is the leading sell-side advisor and thought partner to auto dealers nationwide. Since its founding in 2014, the firm has led the industry with the sale of more than 300 dealerships generating more than $10 billion in client proceeds, including two of the largest transactions in auto retail history – the sale of Jim Koons Automotive Companies to Asbury Automotive Group and Leith Automotive to Holman. The firm advises the industry’s leading dealership groups, enhancing value through the lifecycle of growing, operating and, when the time is right, selling their businesses. Led by a team of veteran industry experts with backgrounds in investment banking, private equity, accounting, finance and real estate, Kerrigan Advisors is the only firm in auto retail exclusively dedicated to sell-side advisory, providing its clients the assurance of a conflict-free approach.
Kerrigan Advisors monitors conditions in the buy/sell market and publishes an in-depth analysis each quarter in The Blue Sky Report®, the industry authority on dealership buy/sell market trends and valuations and includes Kerrigan Advisors’ signature blue sky charts, multiples and analysis for each franchise in the luxury and non-luxury segments. To download a preview of the report, click here. The firm also releases The Kerrigan Index™ comprised of the seven publicly traded auto retail companies with operations focused on the US market. The Kerrigan Auto Retail Index is designed to track dealership valuation trends, while also providing key insights into factors influencing auto retail. To access The Kerrigan Index™, click here. To read the 2024 Kerrigan Dealer Survey, click here. To read the 2025 Kerrigan OEM Survey, click here. Kerrigan Advisors also is the co-author of NADA’s Guide to Buying and Selling a Dealership.
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