Fans champing at the bit for the potential North American arrival of Zeekr’s 001 FR sport sedan, anything from Tesla-rivaling BYD, and/or, if you're financially flush, 1,207-horsepower Hyper SSR may not have to wait long. According to a new survey, an overwhelming majority of official automakers in the United States believe it’s only a matter of time before Chinese car brands start entering the U.S. market, undercutting cars like the Tesla Model 3.
According to the Kerrigan Advisors’ 2025 OEM Survey - the third annual report from the California-based, sell-side advisor to auto dealers - 76 percent of OEM executives believe that products from official Chinese OEMs will soon make their way Stateside, given China’s growing influence on the global automotive market. More than 40% of global automotive production capacity comes from China, with the nation building a record-shattering 30.16 million cars in 2023.
Of the 100 executives polled, 70 percent were also concerned about the financial impact China’s entry into the U.S. market would have on their market share. Indeed, given the continued growth of the electrified vehicle market and the commitment of many Chinese brands to electrified vehicles (Chinese OEMs have greater than 75% global market share in EVs), the Kerrigan report even suggested the arrival of Chinese automakers in the U.S. would be deemed “a real threat” by legacy OEMs.
It should be pointed out that the data in this survey is based on "over 100 responses" from "OEM executives," though no further information regarding job titles was given. This data was also accrued in December 2024, three months before the Trump administration delivered its first round of auto tariffs. Since then, of course, several international automakers have begun limiting their U.S. imports.
On that note, 60 percent of the OEMs polled believed the EV market share will continue growing throughout 2025, with 14 percent even suggesting that fully-electric vehicles could exceed 21 percent of the market by the end of the year.
Almost all the executives, however (80 percent), believe the transition to full EVs will play out slower than originally planned owing to a lack of a readily available charging infrastructure for most buyers, high starting prices for even entry-level EVs as well as plummeting resale values, and, EV’s most common bugbears, low consumer demand and battery range concerns. Once again, these results were submitted before the Trump administration rolled a hand grenade into previously established EV tax credits.
Kerrigan Advisors is the leading sell-side advisor and thought partner to auto dealers nationwide. Since its founding in 2014, the firm has led the industry with the sale of more than 290 dealerships generating more than $9 billion in client proceeds, including two of the largest transactions in auto retail history – the sale of Jim Koons Automotive Companies to Asbury Automotive Group and Leith Automotive to Holman. The firm advises the industry’s leading dealership groups, enhancing value through the lifecycle of growing, operating and, when the time is right, selling their businesses. Led by a team of veteran industry experts with backgrounds in investment banking, private equity, accounting, finance and real estate, Kerrigan Advisors is the only firm in auto retail exclusively dedicated to sell-side advisory, providing its clients the assurance of a conflict-free approach.
Kerrigan Advisors monitors conditions in the buy/sell market and publishes an in-depth analysis each quarter in The Blue Sky Report®, the industry authority on dealership buy/sell market trends and valuations and includes Kerrigan Advisors’ signature blue sky charts, multiples and analysis for each franchise in the luxury and non-luxury segments. To download a preview of the report, click here. The firm also releases The Kerrigan Index™ comprised of the seven publicly traded auto retail companies with operations focused on the US market. The Kerrigan Auto Retail Index is designed to track dealership valuation trends, while also providing key insights into factors influencing auto retail. To access The Kerrigan Index™, click here. To read the 2024 Kerrigan Dealer Survey, click here. To read the 2024 Kerrigan OEM Survey, click here. Kerrigan Advisors also is the co-author of NADA’s Guide to Buying and Selling a Dealership.
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